Computer Model Storm Projections
These are the individual raw computer outputs from the different models. THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NHC. Please consult that product for your planning purposes.
A full report on these models can be found on the NHC's web site and at Hurricane Alley.net. Below is a very brief definition of some of the models used to give guidance to hurricane forecasting:
GFS: "Global Forecast System" is the main global meteorological model for the United States. It is run four times a day initialized at 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. This model is the merger and expansion of the AVN (Aviation) and MRF (Medium Range Forecast) models and extends out to 384 hours.
GFDL: The "Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory" model is a limited area baroclinic model developed specifically for hurricane prediction and is run at 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z.
UKMET: This is a global forecast model run by the UK Meteorological Office twice a day at 12Z and 00Z.
NOGAPS: "Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System"
A98E: The A98E model is a statistical-dynamical prediction model that uses geopotential heights from the GFS forecast to modify a CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) track forecast. It is the early NHC98 Statistical-Dynamical Model run for the Atlantic.
LBAR: "Limited area sine transform BARotropic" is a two-dimensional track prediction model
BAM: The "Beta and Advection Model" follows a trajectory from the GFS model to provide a track forecast. There are three versions of this model: shallow (850-700 hPa), medium (850-400 hPa) and deep (850-200 hPa) vertically averaged winds ... BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively.
SHIPS: "Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme" is a statistical model that uses climatological, persistence and synoptic predictors.
DSHP: "Decay SHIP" is identical to the SHIPS model except, if the cyclone is forecast to cross land, the intensity is reduced accordingly.
Emergency and Evacuation Information
Be Prepared: Terms You Should Know
Inland Flooding: The Big Killer
Names: 6 year list of storm names
Helpful Phone Numbers
National Hurricane Center
WTOC/CEMA Weather Hotline
WTOC and the Chatham Emergency Management Agency have teamed up to make sure you stay ahead of the storms and other emergencies.
You can now get weather and emergency information by simply picking up the phone. Just dial 912.644.8811 to get weather and emergency information as well as seasonal tips.
The CEMA/WTOC weather hotline: 912.644.TV11 (8811).