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Model Projections

Computer Model Storm Projections

These are the individual raw computer outputs from the different models. THIS IS NOT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NHC. Please consult that product for your planning purposes.


Model Definitions:

A full report on these models can be found on the NHC's web site and at Hurricane Alley.net. Below is a very brief definition of some of the models used to give guidance to hurricane forecasting:

GFS: "Global Forecast System" is the main global meteorological model for the United States. It is run four times a day initialized at 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. This model is the merger and expansion of the AVN (Aviation) and MRF (Medium Range Forecast) models and extends out to 384 hours.

GFDL: The "Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory" model is a limited area baroclinic model developed specifically for hurricane prediction and is run at 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z.

UKMET: This is a global forecast model run by the UK Meteorological Office twice a day at 12Z and 00Z.

NOGAPS: "Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System"

A98E: The A98E model is a statistical-dynamical prediction model that uses geopotential heights from the GFS forecast to modify a CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) track forecast. It is the early NHC98 Statistical-Dynamical Model run for the Atlantic.

LBAR: "Limited area sine transform BARotropic" is a two-dimensional track prediction model

BAM: The "Beta and Advection Model" follows a trajectory from the GFS model to provide a track forecast. There are three versions of this model: shallow (850-700 hPa), medium (850-400 hPa) and deep (850-200 hPa) vertically averaged winds ... BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively.

Intensity Models:
SHIPS: "Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme" is a statistical model that uses climatological, persistence and synoptic predictors.

DSHP: "Decay SHIP" is identical to the SHIPS model except, if the cyclone is forecast to cross land, the intensity is reduced accordingly.


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