This is very worrisome!
Savannah will see tropical weather by Friday!
HARVEY is still a TD.
Its center of circulation still very-well defined as he missed the inland Guadeloupe and Mexico mountains.
So he has lasted longer with torrential rains.
Mudslides and mountain flooding are overwhelming in that area.
Two models now think HARVEY will slip back into the southern most tip of the Bay of Campeche.
Regeneration is not likely, and not included in the official NHC forecast just released.
NO WORRIES FOR GEORGIA.
IRENE is another story. She is very worrisome as of this writing.
She will be become the first hurricane of the season, but none of the intensity models show any consistency.
She will interact with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola tomorrow and Tuesday, and her condition at that point is a great question.
With a Savannah focus, here's what we do know:
- she will not be a major hurricane;
- she will not make direct landfall on the Georgia or South Carolina coasts, like a HUGO
- she will be a swipe, tracking SSW-NNE either over Statesboro, along the Georgia Coast, or off shore
- we will start feeling her winds by Friday; precipitation amounts depend on track and that's up in the air, so to speak.
The latest? Max winds 50 mph, moving WNW @ 20 mph, pressure up a bit @ 1005mb.
She is expected to strengthen this afternoon and pass near Puerto Rico tonight.
Tropical storm warnings changed to hurricane warnings for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.
A new hurricane watch has been issued for the US Virgin Islands.
Tropical storm watch changed to a warning for Haiti.
And the SE Bahamas has a new tropical storm watch.
IRENE's history is 4-7" of rain over the Leewards, 6-10" expected over Haiti again.
Storm surge up 3-5' with high tides, and that's the timing for the Dominican Republic on Tuesday.
She is characterized by her well-defined deep convection cloud banding.
Hunters found the northern semi-circle lacking some punch in rain and winds, unlikely the southern half of the storm.
That structure will fill-in in 12 hours and result in strengthening and a decrease in forward speed.
Plus an anti-cyclone is now parked over the storm and she is approaching warmer waters. Yep, she might be a hurricane before Haiti.
She is following the Atlantic high-pressure ridge. Two troughs of low pressure over the Southeast, ahead of the storm track are creating a weakness.
IRENE should follow that weakness northward, but by Day 4 and 5, there is no consensus on exactly where that will be.
So we will be alert for all possibilities.
BOTTOM LINE: The official track says IRENE hits Miami Thursday afternoon as a minimal hurricane, and travels up the Florida peninsula.
But the trend has been to push the forecast track slowly to the east.
That's much better.
We will be watching!