Third Major Hurricane 1100 Sept 30, 2011

OPHELIA now a Cat 3.

PHILIPPE still struggling as a Tropical Storm.

OPHELIA is now a Cat 3, a major hurricane, the fourth hurricane and the third major hurricane of the season.

She is moving NNW @ 12 mph with MAX winds 115 mph.

This is probably it, maxed out in intensity with a nice eye that is now quite visible surrounded by the central dense overcast.

Only small fluctuations right in the intensity guidance package from here for the next day or so, then OPHELIA will encounter increased shear and colder waters.

Official track takes her just east of Bermuda 2000 tomorrow.

She will become post-tropical SE of Newfoundland Monday morning.

Effects on our area?  Maybe some higher surf and rip currents today and tomorrow.

She will be an issue for vessel traffic.

Little beach erosion at this fetch.


PHILIPPE is holding on.

Intensity guidance says he never becomes a hurricane, downgraded by Monday 0800.

He is moving NW @ 13 mph, MAX winds 50 mph.

He will become more westerly about the 25th latitude, right on line with Miami, north of the islands.

But the models do turn what's left of PHILIPPE northward, right behind OPHELIA toward Bermuda next week.

Due to his weakness, hostile environment and projected track, NO WORRIES FOR GEORGIA.

Nothing else behind that.

We will watch a cluster of convection just north of the Bahamas off the Florida coast.

Little chance of any development, but if anything pops, it will happen fast.

Enjoy the fine October weekend!