Tropical UPDATE 1100 Oct 28, 2011

This will probably be the RIP for RENA.

She has now drifted into the Yucatan Channel and has been downgraded to a tropical depression.

This was a near-major-hurricane days ago, 110 mph winds and almost daily 2-foot rainfalls.

What happened?

The seasons.

The migration of fall across the Gulf of Mexico, plus intense fall-like vertical wind shear, are all working to pull the storm apart.

Dry air is now being entrained into the storm and her passage over land briefly did not help.

The center is now completely exposed well SW of the remaining convection.

And we need to footnote one other problem, an approaching wave.

That didn't help either.

MAX winds now 35 mph, moving NNE @ 6 mph.

She is about 55 miles NNE of Cancun.

Official forecast track finishes the turn back to the south later today.

RENA will be a remnant low by this evening.

That might be delayed by about 12 hours if low-level convection can fire up again, as it did yesterday afternoon.

Bye bye RENA.

Elsewhere, that wave approaching RENA is now approaching Nicaragua, so a very low chance of any development.

And another wave is trying to cross the Atlantic, now 850 mi NNW of the Cape Verde Islands.

Pressures are high and the environment is marginal for any development at this time.

We'll keep you updated as we enter the final month of the 2011 Hurricane Season.

And IF there's another named storm, it would be SEAN.  That's looking less likely…