As we head deeper into June, the tropics are heating up across the Atlantic Basin.
As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center is watching two areas for the formation of a tropical system. The first is an expected area of shower and thunderstorm activity extending from the western Caribbean into the far southern Gulf of Mexico.
This area has a 0-percent chance of developing within 48 hours, and a 20-percent chance within the next five days.
Very gradual organization of shower and thunderstorm activity is likely across the southern Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche late this weekend and early next week. Whether it actually attains tropical status, and where it goes once formed, are questions that still cannot be answered. We'll have a better idea by Friday.
The second area to watch is located over the far-eastern Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave is more than 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or nearly 500 miles west of the African Coast Wednesday morning.
This area has a 10-percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 20-percent chance within the next five days.
The eastern Atlantic – or MDR, Main Development Region – is typically watched for development in August, September and October. It is unusual to see a tropical system form there in mid-June. The last time a tropical system formed that far east so early in the season was 1979.
However, conditions are marginally favorable for tropical development over the next several days as it racks westward toward the Caribbean.
The First Alert Forecast Team will continue to track conditions across the Atlantic Basin. We’ll update you on-air, online and in the WTOC Weather App as the forecast becomes more clear.
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