Tropical Update: Risk of tropical development in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Update: Risk of tropical development in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

SAVANNAH, GA (WTOC) - As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center is watching two areas for the formation of a tropical system within the next five days to a week.

The first is an area extending from the southwestern Caribbean into the far southern Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. Storminess associated with a seasonal monsoon has been lifting northward over the past few days, putting it over Central America and adjacent warm waters.

An approaching tropical wave may interact with already stormy conditions in this area, increasing the risk of tropical development late Father's Day Weekend or early next week. This area has a 0-percent chance of developing within the next 48 hours, and a 50-percent chance within the next five days.

Whether it actually attains tropical status, and where it goes next week, still cannot be answered. We'll have a better idea this weekend.

The second area to watch is located over the far-eastern Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave is more than 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or nearly 800 miles west of the African Coast Thursday morning.

This area has a 10-percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 20-percent chance within the next five days. It is possible that this tropical wave may briefly become something tropical if it doesn't encounter South America and other land areas along it's westward trek.

However, it will be moving into an environment that is unfavorable for strengthening by the time it enters the Caribbean.

The First Alert Forecast Team will continue to track conditions across the Atlantic Basin. We'll update you on-air, online and in the WTOC Weather App as the forecast becomes more clear.

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