Tropical Update: Moderate chance of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Update: Moderate chance of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico

As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center is still watching two areas for the formation of a tropical system within the next few days.

The area most likely to develop is associated with storminess extending from the extreme western Caribbean into the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Showers and storms are being caused by a seasonal monsoon trough that has lifted northward, now stretching from the Yucatan to just north of Honduras.

An approaching tropical wave may interact with already stormy conditions in this area, increasing the risk of tropical development late Father's Day Weekend or early next week. This area has a 0-percent chance of developing within the next 48 hours, and a 60-percent chance within the next five days.

These probabilities are likely to be adjusted as we head into Father's Day Weekend.

When and where it attains tropical status, as well as where it goes next week, still cannot be answered with 100-percent confidence. However, the track favors a general west or northwestward movement through the middle of next week.

We'll have a better idea of how next weeks tropical forecast will play-out, this weekend. If you have interests along the Gulf Coast, or plans to cruise through the Gulf of Mexico, you'll want to keep an eye on the tropics over the next four to six days.

The second area to watch is located over the far-eastern Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave is more than 1,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, pushing west-northwestward toward the Caribbean.

This area has a 20-percent chance of development within the next 48 hours, and a 40-percent chance within the next five days. Conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable for strengthening once it enters the Caribbean.

The First Alert Forecast Team will continue to track conditions across the Atlantic Basin. We'll update you on-air, online and in the WTOC Weather App as the forecast becomes more clear.

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