An area of shower and thunderstorm activity in the southwestern Caribbean has been classified ‘Invest 93-L’.
What is an invest? An area of storminess in the Atlantic Basin that the National Hurricane Center is investing resources – data, hurricane hunters, etc. – to track and forecast. As of Saturday afternoon, this system is still not technically tropical, but has a 40-percent-chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours; an 80-percent-chance within the next five days.
Disorganized shower and storm activity is expected to gradually lift northward, across the Yucatan and into the southern Gulf of Mexico, by early next week. As it does so, conditions will become more favorable for it to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm.
A Hurricane Reconnaissance Team will investigate this area of lower pressure Sunday afternoon.
There is still a significant amount of uncertainty with 93-L’s forecast track and eventual strength. There are two general camps of thinking Saturday afternoon. A few models bring this northward as a strong Tropical Storm; making landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast early next week.
Another group of reliable forecast models gradually bring Invest 93-L west-northwestward as a Tropical Depression or weak Tropical Storms before making landfall in northern Mexico or south Texas coast during the middle of the workweek.
The forecast favors a weaker system and more-westward track through early next week.
But, exact track and strength are still uncertain. With that said, direct impacts to the Georgia Coastal Empire and South Carolina Lowcountry are not forecast at this time.
If this system were to become tropical and make landfall well east of the Mississippi River, the local forecast for early next week would have to be altered; introducing the risk of localized heavy rainfall.
As data improves, and a forecast becomes more certain, the First Alert Forecast team will keep you updated on-air, at wtoc.om and in the WTOC Weather App.
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