Tropical Depression Four continues to move speedily westward.
Showers and thunderstorm activity has been persistent on the system’s western side for the past 24 hours, a sign of wind shear. The eastern side of the system is largely dry and the center of circulation is practically void of shower activity.
Looking ahead, T.D. Four will continue to encounter some level of wind shear as well as dry air. These factors will limit the potential strengthening. While T.D. Four may briefly become “Don” within the next 36-48 hours, it won’t maintain that strength for long.
The National Hurricane Center believes this system will lose a well-defined circulation later this weekend. Once that occurs, the system will be downgraded back to an open tropical wave.
The remnants will continue to push west-northwest, eventually approaching Florida or the southwestern Atlantic, but significant re-strengthening is not currently expected.
Both Tropical Storm Bret and T.D. Four avoided becoming significant systems. However, they may be signaling a busy hurricane season.
Tropical systems forming in the "Main Development Region" this early in the hurricane season is unusual and has been correlated to a more active hurricane season.
We’ll keep an eye on the latest trends.
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