Invest 90-L continues to produce clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the far-southern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica, Wednesday morning.
Gradually, organization and eventual intensification are likely heading into the weekend. Invest 90-L has a 90-percent-chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48-hours.
While there is still plenty of uncertainty, we are confident that a general northwesterly track should continue over the next 48 hours, likely impacting Honduras Thursday. A more northerly motion is forecast heading into the weekend.
The Yucatán Peninsula may be impacted by whatever Invest 90-L becomes.
A tropical storm or hurricane is likely to be moving northward, through the Gulf of Mexico, this weekend. Whatever this system becomes may make landfall Sunday or Monday. While an exact landfall location is far from certain as of this forecast, the greatest risk spans from Lake Charles, Louisiana, to Apalachicola, Florida.
If this system takes the more eastern track, some impacts are likely across the inland southeast. Locally heavy rain would be the most prominent impacts, with a lesser risk of gusty winds and isolated tornadoes across portions of the southeastern United States.
Another disturbance to watch, heading into the Gulf. Risk of development is much less than Invest 90-L. pic.twitter.com/h9Gxefq22C— WTOC Cutter Martin (@CutterMartin) October 4, 2017
Adjustments to the forecast are certain at this point. Check back and stay tuned to any updates from the First Alert Forecast Team on WTOC-TV, on our weather app, and online at our Hurricane Center page.
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