As of the 5 p.m. advisory, Tropical Depression 16 is still brewing and expected to become Tropical Storm Nate as early as overnight.
While there is still plenty of uncertainty, we are confident that a general northwesterly track should continue over the next 48 hours, likely impacting Honduras.
A more northerly motion is forecast heading into the weekend. The Yucatán Peninsula may be impacted by tropical storm or hurricane conditions Friday and Saturday.
At least a minimal hurricane is likely to be moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Whatever this system becomes will make landfall Sunday or Monday. While an exact landfall location is far from certain as of this forecast, the greatest risk spans from New Orleans, Louisiana, to Apalachicola, Florida.
If this system takes the more eastern track, impacts are likely across the inland southeast, including the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry.
Locally heavy inland rain would be the most prominent impacts, with a lesser risk of gusty winds and isolated tornadoes across portions of the southeast.
Adjustments to the forecast are certain at this point. Check back and stay tuned to any updates from the First Alert Forecast Team on WTOC-TV, on our weather app, and online at our Hurricane Center page.
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