First Alert Forecast: Increasingly warm with a tricky Christmas - WTOC-TV: Savannah, Beaufort, SC, News, Weather & Sports

First Alert Forecast: Increasingly warm with a tricky Christmas week forecast

7 Day High Temperatures 7 Day High Temperatures
7 Day Rain Chances 7 Day Rain Chances

Clouds continue to fill-in over the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry; signaling a significant weather pattern change across the southeastern United States.

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Initially, you’ll notice three things; warmer temperatures, more rain on First Alert Radar and overnight rounds of locally dense fog. This setup begins Monday. Though rain coverage will be scattered and dense fog mainly west.

Tuesday features another - perhaps more widespread - round of locally dense morning fog, mild temperatures, and an isolated rain chance.

The greatest shot at rain sweeps in later Wednesday in the early hours of Thursday morning.

Temperatures remain mild through the upcoming work-week, with only a minor cool-down Thursday as we dry out. However, it will be short lived. The forecast warms up significantly as we approach Christmas.

If the current data and general idea of the weather pattern in our neck of the woods is correct, some may feel near-record high temperatures Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

This warm streak is coming ahead of what may be a strong, Arctic, cold front immediately following Christmas. There continues to be an incredible amount of uncertainty with the forecast between December 24th and January 1st.

Some forecast data has suggested record cold and an incredible ice storm across the southern plains on Christmas Day; very cold spreading east afterward. However, other data suggest a milder scenario with no winter weather risk.

We simply do not know how the forecast will unfold to our west during the holiday.

The models that we use to develop forecasts disagree with each other. To put it simply, there is a lot of ‘chaos’ revolving around how the jet stream, etc. will adjust in about a week. Forecast models have trouble with this and tend to spit out crazy solutions and flip-flop wildly.

What we do know:

  • It’s going to be a warm work-week overall
  • Thursday will be the coolest day
  • Near record warmth appears likely Christmas weekend
  • A cold front will sweep through near, or just after Christmas

I think forecast models will start to get a better handle on the weather pattern by the middle of this week. Look for a more certain answer to the question “When will it get cold again?” by that time.

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