The Colorado State Department of Atmospheric Science team released its forecast for the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season at the National Tropical Weather Conference on South Padre Island, Texas, Thursday morning.
The team, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, is forecasting a slightly above normal 2018 Hurricane Season.
The forecast calls for 14 named systems - Tropical Storms or Hurricanes - seven Hurricanes and three Major Hurricanes. The 1981-2010 average is 12 named tropical systems, six Hurricanes and two Major Hurricanes.
There is a larger than normal amount of uncertainty with the upcoming hurricane season as forecasters remain unsure about how the large scale, global, weather pattern develops over the next few months.
Forecast models have different ideas about the possible formation of El Nino; warmer waters of the Pacific Coast of South America, near the equator. If an El Nino develops, our hurricane season would likely be less active.
If conditions remain neutral or a La Nina episode occurs, there may be an increased number of named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin.
One thing is for certain – this is just a preliminary outlook and the forecast is subject to change.
I give you the same advice here that the weather team has through many previous hurricane seasons:
The First Alert Weather Team looks forward to keeping you informed this hurricane season. While we hope that all tropical weather stays far away from the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry, we’ll still be here if it doesn’t.
Rest easy, friends.
Copyright WTOC 2018. All rights reserved.