Low pressure, Invest 90-L, is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula and remains disorganized as of Thursday morning.
A 40% chance of tropical development is possible within the next 48-hours. This area of low pressure is going to be pulled northward over the next few days, into the Gulf of Mexico. Once in the central and northern Gulf, conditions become more favorable for tropical development.
There is a high (80%) chance of tropical development within the next 48-96 hours (this weekend). We may have our first Tropical Depression, or Tropical Storm Alberto, by Sunday.
Whether it becomes tropical or not, a lot of moisture is going to be thrown into the southeastern United States, and periods of widespread rain are likely Sunday and Memorial Day.
The heaviest rains and greatest risk of localized flooding, will be along the Interstate 10 corridor from Panama City, Florida, to New Orleans, Louisiana; widespread rainfall totals between 4 and 8 inches are likely there. Of course, an adjustment in track would shift this rainfall forecast.
Locally, 2 to 4 additional inches of rain are possible between Sunday morning and Memorial Day evening. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall west of I-95.
Sunday and Monday are First Alert Weather Days – rain is forecast to be a bit heavier, more persistent and widespread than previous days. Have a "plan b" if you had previously scheduled outdoor activities.
We'll continue to pass along updates on TV, at wtoc.com and in the WTOC Weather App.