Big John WEATHER Summary & Discussion
(Issued 3:00 pm Tuesday July 29th, 2014)
The afternoon weather is CERTAINLY not an issue today: drier air, a little cooler, less humid, nice NW breeze and highs reaching up to 90. Yes, much better, as advertised. So what's next? Can we keep this set-up for a while? No, rain and storms, and more deep-level moisture return for the weekend. Plus we have to watch BERTHA.
Who's BERTHA? We have a new tropical wave, now about half-way between Africa and the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15 mph. This low is developing convective rain bands, soon a closed-circulation and already tropical-storm-force-wind-gusts. NHC says 70/80 on development so expect a tropical depression perhaps before the end of this day.
If, and when, it becomes a tropical storm (models say by week's end for sure), it will be named BERTHA. And then a whole new batch of hurricane models kick in. But for now, the "early" look is for BERTHA to skip past Puerto Rico turning more to the northward, missing the U.S. Coastline next week as a "fish storm." I repeat: we are early on this one.
Meanwhile, one of the features that will possibly turn a new tropical storm would be the next Pacific cold front due here this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances start Friday and look to be 50% for Saturday through Monday. We'll get some fine tuning on that in the days ahead. We'll be watching!
Meteorologist John Wetherbee, CBM
AMS Broad of Broadcast Meteorology
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