Big John WEATHER Summary & Discussion
(Issued 3:00 pm Tuesday July 22nd, 2014)
Everything is on schedule here for another wet and stormy day. Again the fear is not "severe" weather, though individual cells may reach severe limits quickly. No, the bigger concern again is flooding with these slow-moving cells generating heavy downpours. The focus this afternoon will be the Lowcountry and interior Georgia counties. Again, somebody's getting poured on.
Our front has now weakened to basically a trough of low pressure right overhead. A stronger upper low centered over Mobile will be drawn to the northwest, dragging our trough northward as it does while Atlantic high pressure slides inland later tonight. That motion pushes the "downpour axis" further inland today.
Again, little upstairs is really "pushing" these cells once they form, so they will rain themselves out basically in the same area creating the locally heavy rainfall. And with the trough sliding away, that's the point of the coldest air aloft and the greatest generator of lightning, so not quite a vivid and destructive today. Just watch for the flooding. Rain chances diminish ahead.
In the tropics, not much concern about Tropical Depression #2 in the Central Atlantic. The official forecast track wipes it out by Thursday as it reaches the Lesser Antilles. It's a very small storm with some circulation noted but not very organized. And ahead is a very hostile environment for any development. Nobody's expecting BERTHA from this. We'll be watching.
Meteorologist John Wetherbee, CBM
AMS Broad of Broadcast Meteorology
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