Big John WEATHER Summary & Discussion
(Issued 8:00 pm Thurs, May 24th, 2012)
Big change in our weekend forecast. Grill on Saturday, grab a movie on Sunday, maybe Monday too.
The problem is another weak elongated area of low pressure sitting over the Florida Keys tonight. The trough holding it in place will pull to the northeast dragging the low with it, and helping the low develop perhaps into a tropical or subtropical system. Then, the low gets held up off the Georgia coast and gets pushed back to the coast. Not on the holiday weekend!
The large unorganized system remains disorganized due to strong upper levels winds. But those winds diminish Saturday. Then the environmental conditions may promote a tropical or subtropical system. And early incomplete model solutions indicate a tropical depression eventually making landfall late Saturday night.
Now, this will change. There is no vertical structure to help the storm form, like ALBERTO. There is additional wind shear available on Sunday, like the shear that hit ALBERTO. And this will be a giant rainmaker. But unlike ALBERTO, landfall appears part of the plan, as of this writing, over Savannah.
But I repeat, this will change. Stay tuned on this one. ALBERTO intensified very quickly, so we will watch this one and if it's named it would be BERYL. All of the models are keeping this system very weak. Worst case, it becomes a tropical storm late Saturday with heavy rainfall and some gusty winds. Not on the holiday weekend! Stand by…
Meteorologist John Wetherbee, CBM
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