Big John WEATHER Summary & Discussion
(Issued 3:00 pm Wednesday August 20th, 2014)
Not as stormy today, and even hotter. Offshore flow is also not as strong today, but strong enough to pin down the sea breeze front again, so temperatures and heat indices are soaring. Please be HEAT SMART. Any isolated late-day thunderstorms will wash out quickly by sunset with a warm night is on tap for tonight. Better storm chances are back for the weekend.
There is one potential problem, a stronger shortwave over North Carolina, stronger than depicted by guidance. More intense thunderstorms are pushing toward the coast along I-40. We are "protected" by the edge of the Atlantic ridge, but if these cells continue to reach to the jet stream, that may be pushed southward into our Lowcountry counties this evening.
This hot pattern will continue for the rest of the week with a northwest flow aloft keeping us dry, and Atlantic high pressure at the surface. Get ready for triple-digits with heat indices close to 110, index will be a little lower inland where we get better mixing. Expect Heat Advisories to be necessary as we see the hottest conditions so far this season.
Then Saturday, a backdoor cold front slides down the lee of the Appalachians, There is an increased chance of locally-heavy late-day thunderstorms, and it will be a little "cooler" with the additional cloud cover. Also the sea breeze front will be "freed" and able to trigger more showers and storms. Don't change any weekend plans just yet!
In the tropics, we have a series of tropical waves east of the Lesser Antilles and NHC is thinking the first two in line are merging slowly. Lots of social media buzz about a potential storm for next week and maybe impacting the Gulf. None of the global model suites, which all show the tropical feature, are very impressed with it just yet. We'll be watching.
Meteorologist John Wetherbee, CBM
AMS Board of Broadcast Meteorology
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