Watching the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development

Watching the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Development
WTOC Tropical Update on Monday, June 1, 2020. (Source: WTOC)

SAVANNAH, Ga. (WTOC) - Eyes will be on the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean this week as tropical development is likely before the week is out.

The Central American Gyre, a seasonal area of storminess stretching from Central America into northern South America, has been very active the past few days and is forecast to remain active throughout this week, producing widespread storminess and heavy rain.

This setup has been known to spawn areas of low pressure that eventually develop into tropical systems… if storminess happens to persist over warm ocean water and within conditions that are favorable for tropical systems to form.

The northeastern Pacific’s Tropical Storm Amanda made landfall over the weekend and the remaining area of lower pressure is forecast to emerge in the Bay of Campeche later Monday into Tuesday.

Conditions are favorable for a bit of organization once it emerges over water. The National Hurricane Center gives it an 80-percent-chance of tropical development.

The next name of the Atlantic Basin hurricane name list is “Cristobal”.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast across the Gulf of Mexico through this week and into the early part of next week.

Does the area of low pressure we’re tracking now get pulled further north – closer to the U.S. Gulf Coast by the end of the week?

Does another area of low pressure spawned by the Central American Gyre develop into a tropical system over the Gulf?

Both are possible scenarios.

While specifics are unknown, people with interests along the Gulf Coast should be paying attention to local forecasts and if you have travel plans to that are – keep an eye on the tropical update.

The forecast, and any potential U.S. impacts, should become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday. Currently, there is no direct threat posed to the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry and a direct impact remains unlikely. However, the WTOC Weather Team will continue to monitor the situation over the next several days and will alert you to any changes.

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