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FIRST ALERT | Elsa forecast to bring widespread rain, risk of a few severe storms Wednesday

Elsa tracks through the Caribbean
Elsa is tracking through the Caribbean and towards Cuba(First Alert Weather)
Published: Jul. 5, 2021 at 5:17 AM EDT|Updated: Jul. 5, 2021 at 5:42 PM EDT
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SAVANNAH, Ga. (WTOC) - Tropical Storm Elsa is tracking through the Caribbean and has made landfall along the south coast of Cuba.

Elsa continues to battle some wind shear. The same wind shear led to weakening over the weekend and is forecast to be present, though may be less of an impact, through the rest of Elsa’s Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico journey.

The Tropical Storm is forecast to make landfall along the Florida Peninsula Wednesday morning as a Tropical Storm. From there, Elsa tracks through the southeast and off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Wednesday and Thursday.

Locally, this is not going to be a widespread severe wind event. This is not going to be a widespread severe coastal flooding event. However, it does appear that a large area of rain – and a couple, embedded, strong to severe thunderstorms - will move through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some of the rain will be heavy. Some communities may see several rounds of heavy rain; increasing the risk of street flooding; peaking Wednesday evening and night.

RAIN | Widespread 1″-3″ of rain, some communities will pick-up between 3″ and 5″ of rain. One, or two, spots could see between 6″ and 8″ of rain where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same areas.

WIND | This is not going to be a widespread severe wind event. It’ll be breezy with sustained winds between 15 and 25MPH, most likely, and some gusts to 40 MPH, or so. Thunderstorms could produce stronger wind gusts in a couple spots; between 50 and 60 MPH.

TIDES | This is not going to be a severe coastal flooding event. In fact, no coastal flooding is forecast. The highest tide occurs around 5 p.m. Wednesday. The tide is forecast to peak just less than 8′ near Fort Pulaski Wednesday evening. Tide forecasts could still be adjusted. But, only minor coastal flooding would be expected even in a ‘worst case’.

SEVERE | Widespread severe weather is not expected. A few thunderstorms may become severe and produce wind gusts to 60 MPH and isolated tornadoes. Make sure you have at least one way to get severe weather alerts Wednesday.

The team will keep you updated as we track Elsa through our area. Some forecast adjustments are still possible. Though, an increase in the severity of forecast impacts remains unlikely.

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