Jamie’s St. Patrick’s Day Forecast 03-16-2023

SAVANNAH, Ga. (WTOC) - Mostly clear skies (minus some smoke from controlled burns) as high pressure remains in control, though now off shore.

St. Patrick’s Day morning will start with 45° in Statesboro to 50° in Savannah and 55° along the coast. Temperatures will warm steadily into the mid 60s by the start of the 199th annual Saint Patrick’s Day Parade with noon temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will pick up 15mph with gusts of 25mph. Plenty of sunshine for the first half of the day then clouds will thicken ahead of a cold front. Afternoon highs will be 79°; a little cooler at beaches: 74°.

Friday night through Saturday night: the cold front is expected to move across the region Friday night, with the actual wind shift of the front moving just east of the area by around daybreak Saturday. We’ve got a 90% chance of rain think Friday 10pm through 7am Saturday. So Saturday starts wet with middle 50s and highs reach about 60 give or take a degree as the rain tapers off after lunchtime and clouds remain pretty thick.

Sunday 42/60 with a mix of sun and clouds. Beaches look a little cloudier as the front becomes stationary just off shore.

Monday, the beginning of Spring will feel a lot like winter, like early January: 41/60 mix of sun and clouds.

day. However, models have been showing moisture and chances for precip. Hanging back behind wind shift of the cold front. Thus, have likely to categorical pops through friday night, and then a gradual decrease from west to east saturday and saturday night. Lows friday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and mid to upper 50s else where. Highs saturday expected to be pretty cool, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Much colder saturday night as a cold high pressure tries to build in from the northwest. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s well inland, and lower to mid 40s rest of the area.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONTWill move through the region friday night into saturday morning. The front could become stationary just offshore this weekend, possibly followed by a coastal storm next week. && .near term /until 6 am friday morning/... The forecast is in excellent shape and did not require any significant changes for the late evening update.

Friday night through saturday night: the surface cold front is expected to move across the region friday night, with the actual wind shift of the front moving just east of the area by around 12z saturday. However, models have been showing moisture and chances for precip. Hanging back behind wind shift of the cold front. Thus, have likely to categorical pops through friday night, and then a gradual decrease from west to east saturday and saturday night. Lows friday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and mid to upper 50s else where. Highs saturday expected to be pretty cool, only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Much colder saturday night as a cold high pressure tries to build in from the northwest. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s well inland, and lower to mid 40s rest of the area.

Sunday: models in good agreement with finally drying out the region as a strong surface ridge continues to build in from the northwest. Even under mostly sunny skies, expect highs will only reach in the mid to upper 50s, nearly 15 degrees below seasonal normals. && .long term /sunday night through thursday/... Sunday night through monday night: a deep layer ridge north of the region will gradually weaken and move east. This ridge is expected to keep the region dry through much of this period. Temperature are likely to continue to be well below normal, with highs on monday only in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the mid to upper 30s inland, and lower to mid 40s closer to the coast. Tuesday through wednesday: model differences start to emerge in this period, especially for tuesday. Global models generally agree on the larger scale flow, with a shallow, broad trough over the southeast u.s., but the gfs develops a stronger surface low feature over the atlantic waters tuesday night/early wednesday. The ecmwf and canadian models are much weaker and/or further southeast with a low center than the gfs. Thus, the blended model solution brings slight chance to low end chance pops over the region tuesday through early wednesday. If the gfs is right, then the threat for stronger northeast winds along the coast would result in higher tide levels and the threat for at least minor coastal flooding. We will continue monitor the latest model forecasts for any changes to the evolution of this potential coastal low pressure system. Below normal temperatures on tuesday are expected to moderate some on wednesday, possibly back closer to normal. Wednesday night through thursday: models seems to fall back into a consensus solution of developing a deep layer ridge just west of the area, which extends northeast into new england. This is expected to keep the area dry with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 70s by thursday afternoon.

Marine: ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...Friday: SW winds 15 to 20 kt, gusting to 25 kt, seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Friday night: SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Saturday: W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Sunday: N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, seas 2 to 3 ft, a chance of showers in the morning.

Sláinte! Stay Safe!

~JErtle

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